Case Study

Delivering quantitative schedule risk analysis for a nuclear decommissioning programme.

Industry: Civil Nuclear, Decommissioning (UK)

The Client:

An organisation tasked with delivering a nuclear decommissioning programme under a Site Licence Agreement (SLA) from the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA).

Timescales and locations:

3 Months

Caithness (Scotland) / Warrington / Bristol / Remote

How we helped:

The planned decommissioning programme needed to be significantly re-baselined to establish a revised timeline for meeting key milestones. Quantitative schedule risk analysis (QSRA) was a key output of this activity, required to help the NDA understand the range of possible outcomes against the deterministic schedule. The output from the QSRA would also be used to inform a financial contingency for the client and ultimately the NDA. As the client had not carried out an analysis of this significance before and were under significant time pressures, we were called in to offer expert support.

We were contracted to support the re-baselining activity by carrying out the QSRA and to provide sufficient knowledge transfer to the risk team to support them in future risk modeling activities.

What we delivered:

  • Undertook an independent review of the risk database and made recommendations for improvements, including a revised methodology for establishing bases of estimates for risk impacts.
  • Carried out an options analysis for how to achieve the requirements within the significant time constraints.
  • Worked with the risk team to mature the information required for the QSRA to satisfy the NDAs audits.
  • We facilitated several on-site directorate risk workshops to establish a robust and defendable quantitative risk register.
  • We chaired multiple reviews with key project managers to establish the basis of estimates for each deterministic activity duration and the related extent of estimating uncertainty. These reviews were attended by an NDA-led auditing team, including their external partners, Deloitte.
  • We liaised with multiple stakeholders and other supporting consultancies to deliver the QSRA on time and to the highest possible standard based on our extensive experience delivering scenario-based decision analysis.
  • We designed our engagement to satisfy in-depth auditing from the NDA and remained on-hand long after the engagement had completed supporting the client in further reviews and deep-dives.

The Benefits

  • The customer was able to fulfil their contracted requirements to deliver a QSRA on time.

  • We worked collaboratively with the client, the NDA, and other specialist consultancies to deliver the best possible output in challenging circumstances.

  • We are established as a genuinely useful future partner, with whom the client can seek advice and guidance from for future risk-related activities.

  • Our travel flexibility and a mixture of on-site and off-site working meant that we could fit around the client's schedule during a turbulent period, whilst maximising the effectiveness of our on-site activities.

  • Implementing our recommendations for risk improvements will give the client a solid foundation for undertaking future QSRA activities and therefore gain greater insight into delivery predictability.

We believe that risk management isn’t just about managing risks; it's about enhancing performance by embedding risk-thinking into business decisions.